L R AS Published on Sunday 26 April 2020 - n° 319 - Categories:Germany
The German photovoltaic market and its prospects
According to the German market research company EuPD Research, Germany has an installation potential of 1,000 GW by 2050, whereas the ceiling for investment aid is currently limited to 52 GW.
In a survey of 1,000 owners,
5% of them have already decided to buy PV systems, and 15% of respondents said they were close to a final purchase decision. This means that they are currently obtaining offers or seeking advice. Their motivation is to reduce their electricity costs, while contributing to environmental protection. They want to benefit from the state-guaranteed feed-in tariff.
The legal ceiling of 52 GW could be reached in July. Once reached, no new photovoltaic systems up to 750 kW will be subsidised. There could be a strong impact on private owners if the ceiling is not abolished.
The small system segment (up to 10 kW) is a significant market driver in Germany. Last year it grew by 45% with 581 MW of new systems deployed (out of nearly 4 GW installed).
Owners fear a sharp decline in the deployment of new commercial and industrial PV systems due to the 52 GW cap. However, commercial investors are the main driver of photovoltaic demand in Germany.
The energy transition in the electricity sector is underway, EuPD said. The next step will be to decarbonise the heating and transport sectors. This will require large amounts of additional electricity from photovoltaics and wind power. It assumes a final energy consumption of 1,600 TWh in 2050.
"Assuming that offshore and onshore wind power and bioenergy continue to grow at a slow pace, these two sources could cover about 40% of demand, or about 666 TWh in 2050. Photovoltaics should provide 1,000 terawatt hours", according to the BNE. This would require an installed photovoltaic capacity of 1 TWp by the middle of the century.
More short- and long-term storage will be needed to absorb peak loads in the grid and allow for delayed use of solar energy, especially in winter. In the medium term, power generation from renewable energies can also be converted directly into hydrogen in electrolysers.
The BNE has examined the possible acceptance problems that could result from a massive expansion of ground-based photovoltaic systems. Approximately 50,000 square kilometres of space would be required for 500 GW of solar parks. However, Germany currently uses about 24,000 square kilometres to grow energy crops.
According to the BNE, almost 10,000 square kilometres are used for wheat and rapeseed, from which biofuels are produced. If these areas were covered with solar PV instead of energy crops, 30 times more energy could be generated.
"The future energy system would thus occupy less land than today and increase biodiversity significantly and reliably.It is economically superior to the previous fossil fuel system and improves security of supply through flexibility on the production and consumption side," the association said.
According to BNE calculations, the cost of electricity produced by large photovoltaic systems will be around €25 / MWh combined with battery storage from €30 / MWh to €40 / MWh. At the same time, there will be significant cost reductions in the electrolysers that produce green hydrogen. Its production costs could thus fall to around €1.25 per kilogram by 2030 and thus compete with hydrogen produced from fossil fuels.
The new energy industry wants wind and sun to be the fuels of this energy transition.
PV Magazine of 24 April
