L R AS Published on Monday 13 April 2020 - n° 317 - Categories:industrial strategy, the manufacturers
500 GW capacity increases announced in Q1
The increases in production capacity announced by the manufacturers in the sector during the first quarterconcern some 500 GW (to be compared with the 228 GW announced for the whole of 2019, which will be used to increase the production capacity of the sector).
were then a record). These are intentions. They exceed all annual capacity increase plans in the PV history of the past. 94% of these announcements come from China.
In the ingot and wafer segment, the announcements concern 123 GW (compared with 118 GW announced for the whole of 2019).
In the cell segment, they reached 212 GW in three months (compared with 53 GW announced for the whole of 2019).
In the panel segment, they reached 164 GW (compared with 57 GW announced for the whole of 2019).
The size of industrial installations has increased rapidly. The expansion of 500 MW units until 2017 was followed by 5 GW units in 2018 and 2019, and then 10 GW units now in 2020. These projects will be carried out in several phases, often over three years.
The costs of the manufacturing machinery are significantly lower than five years ago. Having panel assembly plants with utilization rates that are not maximum, has little impact on production costs when companies are already large. The same applies to solar cell production plants, but to a lesser extent.
The massive announcements come from growth projections for the end market. They also come from the technological race towards higher conversion efficiencies and lower production costs. Finally, they are justified by the transfer of a 100 GW manufacturing capacity inherited from the capacity of type P multicrystalline ingots and wafers, to the benefit of type N monocrystalline as well as to the benefit of type N with large wafers. The industry also needs to move to new generation cell technology, such as heterojunction (HJT).
Author's note : a°) Expansion figures for 2019 and 2020 are subject to revision. More precise information will be given when the companies' accounts are published by the end of April. There will be data adjustments.
a°) Expansion announcements do not imply completion. Their implementation requires between 12 and 18 months. PV Tech has found that the completion rate for plans or announcements becoming effective capacity may be as low as 50%. The reasons for this are many: lack of funding, market change, difficult technology to master, unobtainable subsidies.
PV Tech of April 5
