L R AS Published on Sunday 5 April 2020 - n° 316 - Categories:forecasts;
Unreliable solar installation forecasts
The most contradictory studies are published on the consequences of the global epidemic.
Analysts at BloombergNEF, PV InfoLink and IHS Markit believe that a significant contraction in demand is likely this year. However, some companies in the sector have recorded record sales, as consumers, apparently in panic, have rushed to buy solar and storage equipment to prepare for uncertain times.
The analysis of Norwegian consultant Rystad Energy
New solar and wind projects would stop in 2020, creating a ripple effect in the years to come as currencies around the world continue to slide against the US dollar: currency fluctuations make purchases of photovoltaic products made in dollars more expensive. As a result, solar and wind power projects will be delayed in 2020, with a further decline of 10% in 2021. Installations currently in the procurement phase could face capital cost increases of up to 36% due to the rapid depreciation of local currencies.
This analyst expects macroeconomic impacts to affect facilities in 2021 and beyond. The most affected countries in the sector would come from the emerging markets of Asia, the Middle East, India and Latin America, where most solar growth was previously expected. In Australia, the 17% decline in the local currency appears to have already slowed orders that were otherwise imminent. Projects seeking financial close will surely come to a halt, reducing the likelihood that the country will reach its target of 1.8 GW of solar photovoltaic electricity by 2021. Approved renewable energy projects planned for 2022 (1.5 GW) will also experience delays.
In Europe, the target of 20 GW in 2020 has been dropped. If parity were to deteriorate further, the weakness of the euro against the dollar could create difficulties for the sector.
China and the United States will be the least affected by currency fluctuations. The number of solar installations in these two countries will remain fairly stable.
PV Magazine of1 April
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IHS Markit estimates a 16% decline in global installations by 2020
Global installations in 2020 will be only 105 GW, down 16% on 2019 due to the slowdown in installations in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. The major solar markets in Europe, India and Asia, apart from China and India, are expected to be the hardest hit. China will exceed its previous forecasts thanks to a government stimulus, reaching 45 GW. It is only from 2021 onwards that the previous trend will be reversed.
Wood Mackenzie projects a return to normal in 2021.
Installation difficulties in the first half of 2020 will affect annual installations. Storage facilities are expected to shrink by 20% this year compared to previous projections. Sales of electric vehicles are expected to decline by 57%.
In India, containment could affect the demand for solar energy. Projects are expected to be postponed until the second half of 2020.
In Italy, the Italia Solar organisation reports that 74% of the photovoltaic companies surveyed this month reported a drop in orders ranging from 10% to 80%. Over the next four months, the organisation added, two out of five solar companies expect orders to fall by more than half before the summer, due to government-imposed movement restrictions as the country struggles with Covid-19.
On Sunday, the Spanish government presented a royal decree that will halt the construction of solar and wind project sites for 15 days, as well as stopping the manufacture of solar panels and wind turbines during this period.
PV Magazine of 31 March
Editor's note We are in the middle of the epidemic. No one knows when containment will be completed; what measures (and to what extent) will be taken to revive the economy. In the midst of this uncertainty, "experts" are launching into numerical forecasts! It's like dreaming.
