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LONGi launched the M2 format in 2017. It has obtained the following advantages

An initial warning with the lack of proof of the effectiveness of two-sided signs

In order to consolidate its position as world leader, LONGi had to shake up the PV world.

The new format can be explained by the gain of larger inserts than previously.

The choice of the new format corresponded to the current possibilities of the profession.

LONGi has launched this new format

However, in order to conquer the 1st ^place in the world, Zhonghuan Semiconductor has made the same calculation.

An innovative format is proposed

Despite the obstacles, the format is sound.

Loss of image and money will affect LONGi.

LONGi launched the M2 format in 2017. It has obtained the following advantages

Of the 2019 photovoltaic world, the most noteworthy features are the switch from multicrystalline to monocrystalline, the end of the feed-in tariff in China, and the further decline in installations in China in the face of global trends. The change in wafer format is also mentioned. However, this is a major event. It probably heralds a change of world n°1 in the production of wafers.

In 2012, the M0 format, with 156 mm sides, was the obvious choice. In 2017, LONGi launched the M2 format (156.75 mm sideways with a diagonal of 223 mm). This initiative by LONGi, supported by the choice of monocrystalline, has propelled the company to the position of world leader. In fact, the one who imposes its format is the one who first implemented it and studied its different characteristics for its production machines. He is one step ahead of his competitors because he chooses the moment of change, because he increases his capacities before anyone else, because he gradually becomes the one who is copied every time he creates a change or an innovation. LONGi has strengthened its image with the introduction of monocrystalline, which it imposed to the detriment of multicrystalline. This product was previously supported by GCL Poly, until the latter's near-collapse. The latter had believed that it could maintain this type of product. He stubbornly sought a substitute for monocrystalline, with black silicon. Fortune or success eluded GCL.

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A first alert with the absence of proof of the effectiveness of two-sided panels

Confidence in his leadership has led LONGi to presumption. At the beginning of 2019, he failed to prove that double-sided panels provided more energy than single-sided panels (he only found particular situations to back up his claims). At that point, he was helped by luck, as the technical modifications to make the double-sided panels were minor and perhaps even reduced production costs compared to the single-sided one. From then on, the whole profession modified its installations. There was a concert of praise from the producers in favour of double-sided panels. As they were barely more expensive than single-sided and provided more benefits for the producer than single-sided, it was obvious that if it was a possible plus, it would compensate for the possible extra cost for the buyer. At the same time, the confidence of LONGi's managers in themselves was constantly increasing. Each quarter of 2019, there was the announcement of an increase in production capacity: in March 2019, LONGi wanted to reach a wafer production capacity of 38 GW by the end of 2019, then 45 GW by the end of 2020, a target that was then raised to 50 GW in May 2019, then 65 GW by the end of 2021. This is to be compared with a world demand of around 120 GW in 2019! which represents about a third of the world demand.

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To establish its position as world leader, LONGi had to shake up the PV world.

Aware of the importance of these capacity increases, LONGi wanted to create a competitive gap with its pursuers, the other wafer manufacturers. There is nothing like creating another format, especially if it can be adapted to the equipment already installed and if it brings additional energy production: The larger the surface area of a wafer, the more radiation it receives and the more energy it produces. If LONGi proposes a new format, the company gains several months (and perhaps quarters) on its competitors, because it has already studied the interest of the new dimension and ordered the suitable machines. By the time the competitors gauge the interest of the novelty, order the machines and install them, there is a period of time during which buyers tend to focus on the novelty and abandon the old formats. This was all the more important as next to LONGi, Zhonghuan emerged, which had the same ambition, that of becoming the world's number one in wafers. Changing the format of the booklets, created a time of adaptation to the novelty that LONGi hoped to take advantage of. LONGI announced the new brochure format in June 2019.

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The new format is explained by the gain of larger inserts than before.

In its introductory message, LONGi explained the interest of this change in format. The company mentioned that the M6 wafer increases the useful surface area by 12%, which allows a 72-cell panel to increase its output power by 9%, while the production cost remains approximately the same. Thus, the new format, which increases the price of the wafer by 0.34 RMB ($0.048) in 2019 (to be reduced to 0.20 RMB this year), provides a net gain of 0.08RMB/watt ($0.012/watt). More importantly, the promoter of this format indicated that no manufacturer would have to make significant investments to achieve it. So it was all profit.

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The choice of the new format corresponded to the current possibilities of the profession.

When in June 2019, LONGi announced who was proposing a new insert format, called M6, all the manufacturers sought to see what the consequences were for them. They all saw that minor changes needed to be made to their equipment and that the new format was right for them. Immediately Aiko Solar, TBEA, Chint, Risen, as well as Canadian Solar and GCL SI for black multicrystalline wafers adopted this format while Artech Solar adapted its racks to this type of format.

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LONGi launched this new format

LONGi also announced that it would soon be moving to the new format and presented its customers with two new panels using the new inserts. The company even indicated that by 2020, it would have modified half of its production tool so that it would only produce M6 inserts. As it is the market leader, many manufacturers have adopted the format. Experts have even predicted that by the end of 2020, half of the wafers will be in M6 format, forcing the entire industry to migrate to this dimension.

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However, in order to conquer the 1st ^place in the world, Zhonghuan Semiconductor has made the same calculation.

If he wanted to destabilise LONGi, he had to propose another format of platelets. While LONGi was starting up its new production capacity, he would have had doubts about the appropriateness of this choice. He would have spent some time questioning and testing. He would have lost customers and money if he had to abandon his equipment in favour of the new standard. He would have had to make these changes in a hurry!

Beforehand, Zhonghuan had had time to study the new format, to select the one that was the most suitable, the most judicious, the most disruptive for his competitor and the most likely to be adopted by the profession, both silicon ingot manufacturers and cell manufacturers.

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An innovative format is proposed

Less than two months after LONGi's announcement, in August 2019, Zhonghuan presented its own wafer format, called M12, with 210 mm sides and 295 mm diagonal. This format goes beyond the traditional platelet dimensions. Its main advantage is that the sun-receiving surface is larger than the M6 and M2, while the equipment that comes with the wafer remains almost identical. Eventually, the number of bars increases. This format therefore provides more power at a slightly higher cost. The power of the panel can be increased to 500 W (which Risen has already presented) or even to 600 W. On the other hand, it requires silicon ingot manufacturers and cell and panel producers to modify their equipment. This has prompted manufacturers to be cautious about announcing this new format.

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Despite the obstacles, the format makes sense.

Only, manufacturers perceive that they need to move towards larger and larger wafer sizes to offer savings to customers, even if it means tooling modifications. This is the same reasoning that LONGi had used to promote the M6 instead of the M2, but it had calculated too narrowly. It is also that over the past eighteen months, manufacturers have learned to master the installation of shingle cells, half cells, and cell overlaps to avoid the space between them as in the past. They have even learned to analyze the advantages of half-cut cells, cut to a third or a quarter, taking into account the energy transfer bars.

While a large majority of manufacturers were ready to switch to the M6 format, some of the most prestigious (Trina Solar, Risen Energy, ...) have analysed the respective advantages of the two formats, and made their accounts. They understood that the evolution was moving towards the M12 format, and that it was wise to adopt it without delay. If these two manufacturers show their preference, others will follow. LONGi will quickly find itself isolated, and will have to change its production tool and format even before the new machines have paid for themselves. It had been at the origin of the M2 format. It is now following other leaders!

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The loss of image and money will affect LONGi.

For the moment, we cannot say that this company is in decline, but it has received a serious warning, because nothing says that the prospects for growth of its production capacities, which aim to reach33% of world sales in 2021, then 40 to 45% in 2022, will not be the beginning of the end because by then new techniques will emerge (perovskite, heterojunction, IBC ...) and even replace monosilicon.

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As a further warning, the State shareholders of Zhonghuan have just announced this week the partial or total sale of the world's n°2. Do they only want to take advantage of the excellent form of this company to take their profit? Are they looking to the future, with too large a share of the world's production? Do they fear technological changes that would eliminate wafers in their current form? Photovoltaics is evolving too fast for their caution to be unjustified!