L R AS Published on Monday 9 December 2019 - n° 301 - Categories:Thread of the Week
Le Fil de la Semaine of 9 December
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
If there were only five texts to read this week :
FRANCE...............* Still very few panel connections in France in the 3rd quarter
THE FILE......*Finally, a serious investigation into the contribution of two-sided panels.
PRODUCTS.........* Sharp fall in battery prices
MISCELLANEOUS...............* A mechanicalsunflower that produces 4 times more energy than PV
........................................* Pumped hydropower: a presentation
Other interesting articles :
THE FILE
* Landfilled solar panels: chemical composition and dangerousness
* Thin layers are the best way to make a place for yourself in photovoltaics
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THE WORLD
* Improving access to American solar energy
* A large number of users are equipping themselves with batteries in the United States.
* United Kingdom in 2020: at least 1 GW of solar power installed
* Forecasts for Spain
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THE PRODUCTS
* Low growth in the tracker market between 2020 and 2024. Is this credible?
* Can lead be removed from PV panels?
* Exceeding the 20% efficiency of CIGS thin-film coatings
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THE COMPANIES
* Wacker begins to worry about its opportunities in China
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THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESETITLES
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FRANCE* Still very few panel connections in France in the 3rd quarter
707 MW of solar power were installed in France during the first nine months of the year. This is approximately what was installed in 2018 (711 MW). This brings the total of installations to 9.6 GW. 5.7 GW, approved, are waiting to be connected to the grid.
France's 9.64 GW fleet breaks down into 9.26 GW in mainland France and 391 MW in overseas territories.
Solar electricity production increased by nearly 9.2% over one year to reach 9.5 TWh over the period January-September. It supplied 2.8% of total electricity consumption in France, 0.3 points more than in the same period in 2018.
By way of comparison, Germany installed 377 MW in October alone, i.e. more than in the third quarter in France. This country installed 3.3 GW of solar energy between January and October.
PV Magazine of 3 December
Editor's note There is a contradiction between government announcements that the volumes awarded in calls for tenders are steadily increasing, and quarter after quarter connections that are not increasing. It is difficult to perceive the origin of this asymmetry. It is likely that it has an identical origin, and that it corresponds to the expectations of those who do not want to develop photovoltaic energy. The situation is being allowed to continue. We therefore hope that France will fall behind neighbouring countries which will benefit from the low cost of renewable energies compared to fossil fuels. Comparative competitiveness between countries is to France's detriment.
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THE SUBSIDIARY* Landfilled solar panels: chemical composition and dangerousness
The lack of economic value of recycling panels encourages them to be landfilled!
300 studies published between 2000 and 2018 have been analysed by Indian researchers to determine the chemical composition and dangerousness of landfilled solar panels.
The researchers examined the metal content of commercially available crystalline silicon panels, CIGS and CdTe thin-film products, and amorphous silicon panels. Their study excluded the contents of the frame and mounting materials, encapsulants, backsheets, junction boxes, copper wires, EVA and glass. They wanted to learn about the importance of extracting metals that are soluble in solvent or water (this is called leaching) from landfilled PV panels.
So far, landfill has been little studied: only 2.4% of the literature reviewed considered the problem out of the 85 studies selected for content analysis.
In crystalline silicon technology, aluminium and silicon represent the largest share in terms of weight, followed by copper, iron and zinc. "The maximum concentration of metal of concern was observed at 4.02 mg / PV panel or 0.7% in a typical crystalline silicon panel," wrote the research team.
In CIGS thin films, aluminium, copper and selenium are the most abundant materials. Gallium - which would have apoptotic (cell killing) and carcinogenic properties if present as a compound - makes up 2.4% of the compound; indium has a 13.1% share.
In CdTe panels, copper, tellurium and cadmium make up the largest amount of metals. "Cadmium and copper were found to be highly toxic to aquatic organisms," the study says. "Metalloid cadmium is a known carcinogen with a maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 0.003 mg/l in drinking water".
The presence of hazardous heavy metals such as cadmium, tellurium, indium and gallium used in thin-film products would pose a significant threat to health and the environment if they are not disposed of properly,
Researchers point out that the lack of economic value in the recycling of these products (WEEE) at present is likely to result in large volumes being dumped in landfills.
They also pointed out the lack of a comprehensive data set for initial metal concentrations. Leaching studies under landfill conditions are also lacking.
PV Magazine of December 4
Editor's note It should be remembered that in Europe, the WEEE directive makes it compulsory to recycle all electronic devices, and therefore solar panels. The European organisation PV Cycle collects and recycles or has panels recycled if they are damaged or at the end of their life.
It should also be remembered that while Europe has regulations, this is not the case in other regions of the world, which rely on the value of recycled products as a basis for action. Hence the interest of this study. It points out that the cost of recycling is part of the cost of a photovoltaic installation and is paid for by consumers.
* Thin layers are the best way to make a place for yourself in photovoltaics
Fifteen or twenty years ago, there were 150 companies specialising in different types of thin films. They were mostly research companies rather than companies that focused on selling products. Only one, First Solar, realised that it needed to organise a sales system. Today, the company's Series 6 panels confirm that thin film can compete with crystalline silicon (c-Si), that costs rival those of Chinese silicon panels, despite the fall in the latter's prices.
A look at the silicon panel manufacturers indicates that it is difficult to make it into the top ten, so important have they become. There may be room for a manufacturer that specialises in supplying panels for roofs if it has a network of installers. There may be room for a manufacturer who specialises in products with high technological value, but no one is sure of this path to success. On the other hand, a manufacturer of thin-film coatings could make room for itself if it has a sales network and guaranteed outlets. Two Chinese groups, Shanghai Electric and CNBM, decided to invest massively in thin films (many years ago already). They relied on the know-how of European equipment manufacturers (Manz, ...) and have the objective of reaching a production capacity of one gigawatt. They can rely on their portfolio of solar power plants to be built by their parent company. Moreover, these assured outlets avoid building up a sales network, making it possible to accept longer losses in the production tool or excessively high costs. China's leading thin-film player, CNBM, will soon be able to reach a production capacity of one gigawatt. It could also benefit from the absence of American customs duties on Chinese products sold in the United States.
A conference in March 2020 will take stock of the evolution of thin films in a world market that will approach 200 GW in the coming years.
PV Tech of 3 December
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THE WORLD* Improving access to American solar energy
American developers want to sell solar access by subscription as Netflix does. Monthly subscriptions are increasingly common in community solar energy, but this system is not yet widespread. American community solar is in an intermediate development zone. Community solar is suitable for the 50% or 75% of Americans who do not have the opportunity to install their own system. But the system needs to expand.
Typically, community-based solar copies the large solar systems that customers can subscribe to. They pay monthly for their solar energy consumption, often at a lower price than their regular electricity bill. Because they are usually located off-site, community solar gardens can provide solar energy to tenants as well as to people whose roofs are not suitable for a traditional solar system because of shading or slope. In 2018, the United States installed 1 GW of solar capacity. The distribution is very uneven, with half of the US states having installed less than 10 MW of community solar energy.
Energy suppliers have relaxed their conditions. They require fewer financial guarantees, and have reduced termination fees. Tariff discounts are becoming more common. Suppliers still need to improve their billing (one or two bills), coordinate their projects with those of the electricity companies, and on how to make community solar available to more customers. Really, there is a big change on the part of suppliers. They're looking to expand their services in terms of installing storage and interconnections. Others are looking to expand their business to achieve economies of scale.
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/community-solar-finally-comes-of-age
GreenTech Media of 3 December
Editor's note Community solar energy is a form of collective self-consumption. Instead of one member of the community producing the energy, it is generated by a third party who distributes it among the users. In both cases, the aim is autonomy of the community grid, and the lowest possible call on the external grid.
* A large number of users in the United States use batteries.
The power outages caused by the electricity company PG & E in California are prompting a large number of users to equip themselves with batteries: this will show up in the figures in 2020. In 2019, there has already been a surge in large-scale storage facilities as well as residential and solar installations. In the third quarter alone, 58 MW of large-scale storage was deployed in Massachusetts (USA); 24 MW were installed in Vermont, and the same amount in Arkansas. Residential storage reached 40 MW, but this is not due to power outages which are too recent.
GreenTech Media of 3 December
* United Kingdom in 2020: at least 1 GW of solar power installed
The deployment of solar energy in the United Kingdom is expected to return to gigawatt per year in 2020: a 6 GW portfolio of projects is being prepared, with or without subsidies.
Over the past year, around 100 new projects have added 3 GW to the portfolio of large power plant projects. The average is 30 MW. This size avoids the need to obtain a national authorisation. On the other hand, the promoters have prepared themselves by drawing up a set of documents in conjunction with planning firms. Work will begin in April 2020 when the uncertainty associated with Brexit will be removed. The annual rate of installation (in 2020, 2021, 2022, etc.) will reach or exceed the annual gigawatt installed.
PV Tech of 3 December
Editor's note The absence of subsidies to be obtained to build completely changes the market. There is nothing left to apply for. All you have to do is find an energy buyer to start construction. As is the case in the UK, it is almost surprising that the portfolio of projects to be built is not larger.
Maximising the role of solar and wind energy in Spain's electricity systems by 2050 will depend on the deployment and use of 'flexibility assets' such as batteries and chargers for dynamic electric vehicles. This is the conclusion of a study published by BloombergNEF (BNEF) in partnership with ACCIONA. (At the same time, a study on Chile has been carried out, but it concerns us less. It is available at https://data.bloomberglp.com/professional/sites/24/Flexibility-Solutions-for-High-Renewable-Energy-Systems-Chile-Outlook.pdf)
Spain has world-class sunshine and wind resources. This makes the country a privileged location for the construction of renewable energies over the next three decades.
The baseline scenario shows that wind and solar power will produce 51% of total electricity by 2030, and up to 75% by 2050, thanks to the fact that these are the cheapest options for generating electricity.
If battery storage costs were to fall faster than expected, the electricity system could need 13% less gas reserve capacity by 2050, have 12% fewer emissions and save 94% of zero-carbon production.
If electric vehicles charge flexibly (to take advantage of cheaper electricity hours), the additional costs to the energy system of electrifying transport can be cut in half. This would also result in 9% fewer emissions than in the baseline scenario.
An increase in interconnection capacity between Spain and France would increase the share of zero-carbon electricity compared to the baseline scenario, and at a slightly lower cost. However, the benefits are less obvious in the long term, as the value of interconnections declines due to simultaneous wind and solar generation in both countries.
BloombergNEF of 4 December
Editorial BloombergNEF says that Spain will be a privileged location for the production of renewable energy over the next three decades. True, but lower costs and greater panel conversion efficiency will spread this advantage to France and then to Germany. There could be an overflow of installations in Spain, based on current information.
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THE PRODUCTS* Finally, a serious investigation into the contribution of two-sided panels.
Between September 2018 and September 2019, Soltec's SF7 two-sided panels on a two-sided tracker achieve an additional 2.1% energy savings compared to single-sided panels at its assessment centre in Livermore, California.
If the ground is laid with a high albedo of white sand or snow-covered ground (at a rate of 55.6%), the gain of the two-sided panels reaches 15.7%. If the floor is laid out with a medium albedo (at a rate of 29.5%), the gain reaches 9.6% compared to single-faced modules. Finally, in cropping areas with an albedo of 19.9%, the bifacial gain of a 2P SF7 bifacial tracker is 7.3%.
PV Tech of 4 December
NDLR The small gains obtained between bifacial and monofacial appear more realistic than the rates generally announced. They are because many studies have been conducted, but nobody wanted to give their figures as if the results were inconclusive. The announced 2.1% surcharge is low but it probably corresponds to reality because we do not see how the back side of a panel, constantly in the shade, could provide a significant volume of energy.
On the basis of an energy production supplement of 2.1%, is it worth paying for more expensive panels than single-sided panels with more complex installations?
* Sharp drop in battery prices
Battery prices, which were over $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, fell 87% to $156/kWh in 2019. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh, according to the latest BloombergNEF forecast.
Cost reductions in 2019 are due to increased order volumes, growth in sales of battery electric vehicles and continued penetration of high energy density cathodes. In the future, the introduction of new packaging models and lower manufacturing costs will lead to lower prices in the short term. In the medium term, "production costs will fall due to improvements in manufacturing equipment and increased energy density at the cathode and cell level. Expansion of existing facilities also provides a less expensive way for companies to increase capacity. "There is also an increasing level of standardization in cell design.
When cumulative demand exceeds 2 TWh in 2024, prices will fall below $100/kWh. This price is considered to be the point around which electric vehicles will begin to reach price parity with ICE-based vehicles.
The electrification of commercial vehicles, such as delivery vans, is becoming increasingly attractive. This will lead to a further differentiation of cell specifications, as commercial and high-end passenger vehicle applications are likely to opt for parameters such as cycle life in the event of a continuous fall in prices. However, for consumer electric passenger vehicles, low battery prices will remain the most critical objective.
There is much less certainty on how the industry will further reduce prices from $100/kWh in 2024 to $1/kWh by 2030. This is not because it is impossible, but rather because there are a variety of options and paths that can be taken.
BloombergNEF of December 3rd
Editor's note The recognition of an average price of $156/kWh in 2019 certainly takes into account the significant drop in the price of lithium and cobalt in international markets. This decline in raw material prices is related to precautionary purchases as demand has shifted. Will BloombergNEF's assertion be maintained in the event of an upturn in raw material prices? If they rise, demand will be postponed again and productivity efforts will be absorbed by commodity prices. Obviously, a technological innovation or a different distribution of nickel, cobalt, magnesium, etc. within batteries would have an effect on prices. One should only consider these forecasts as a possible indication of the future!
* Low growth of the tracker market between 2020 and 2024. Is this credible?
Photovoltaic tracker vendors are seeking to differentiate themselves from the competition in an increasingly global market. They are broadening their offer, particularly through software or additional services, because prices are no longer expected to fall significantly after stabilising in 2017 - 2018 due to a rise in the price of steel and the tariffs imposed by the United States.
In 2018, NEXTracker remains the world's number one, claiming a third of the world market. Other companies, Array Technologies, PV Hardware, Arctech Solar and Soltec, claim between 8 and 12% according to Wood Mackenzie. The tracker market will increase by 62% in 2019, reaching 23 gigawatts (DC) of installations. This is an exceptional leap, as the market is expected to grow by 1% per year over the next four years. (Editor's note Why such a long-lasting slowdown?).
Even if the world market were to develop rapidly, prices would not fall significantly. This is why manufacturers are expanding their offer to include software (STI Norland's proprietary SCADA software and NEXTracker backtracking software) and ancillary services ranging from support, design, engineering, installation, project management, operation and maintenance. Few manufacturers (only NEXTracker) provide an energy storage offer.
Manufacturers have launched two-faced compatible products in response to their growing popularity: the two most common configurations are one portrait panel (1 P) or two portrait panels (2 P).
Tracking facilities are expected to more than double from 2018 to 2024, largely due to the expansion of this use to new areas.
GreenTech Media of 5 December
Editor's note Wood Mackenzie estimates the growth in the tracker market over the next few years at 1% per year and estimates the 2019 growth at 62%! There will be growth well above 1% over the next few years simply because new regions are opening up to this type of support.
* Can lead be removed from PV panels?
Lead is present in many photovoltaic technologies. This metal is often mentioned as a hazardous substance in the green energy supply chain.
Lead is toxic and yet it is found everywhere. This is partly due to man-made emissions. In the past, this heavy metal was released into the environment through the addition of lead to petrol. Today, according to the German Environment Agency, much of this pollution is also caused by car tyres and brakes; it is also caused by a range of heavy metals released from fossil-based power plants.
A crystalline silicon solar panel contains about 12 grams of lead..
This is about as much as is present in a plot of humus-rich European topsoil the size of this panel and 25 cm deep. It is also one tenth of what is allowed by environmental regulations. In the crystalline solar panel, the lead is fixed so that it cannot escape into the environment under normal circumstances, unless it does not follow the prescribed recycling path and ends up illegally in a landfill.
In any case, this metal is highly toxic if it enters drinking water. There is a risk that the panels will not be properly recycled at the end of their life. This is what happens in Africa, for example, with electronic waste.
In the current recycling method, the panels are shredded; the glass is separated from the EVA integration film. The glass is recycled. Lead is mainly bound to the photovoltaic cells. However, as these components are all in fragments, lead is also likely to enter the crushed glass and will end up in the recycled glass. But its lead content will not exceed the limits for use as a secondary raw material in foam or glass insulation.
Probably the most problematic part of the lead in panels is the lead contained in the coating films and cells when they are added to incinerated waste. The lead then ends up diluted in filter residues or ashes. Laws specify the concentration at which this waste must be treated and how. At the moment, with the low volumes of recycled panels, things are far from being at a critical stage.
There is, in principle, a risk that the lead contained in the products will be further diluted and distributed in the different waste fractions.
Producing a lead-free panel is more expensive
Solarworld had developed a lead-free process for the production of cells and panels. In crystalline panels containing cells soldered with tapes, 85% of the lead is in the solder and 15% in the pastes. In order to produce lead-free panels, lead-free pastes are required. Cells and panels produced with these pastes were slightly less efficient, by about 0.1 percentage points, than lead-containing products at about the same cost.
According to Neuhaus' estimates, in a lead-containing panel that has an efficiency of 20% and costs perhaps 0.20 € / W, the lead-free alternative would cost 0.21 € / W. This is a small additional cost of 0.5%. "For fully integrated manufacturers with an annual capacity of one gigawatt, however, this represents one million euros less profit. As manufacturers already have narrow margins, that's too much. "SolarWorld, for example, has never switched to lead-free production.
This lead-free panel solution is unlikely to be adopted in production until companies are forced to do so by environmental legislation. The European Commission is currently reviewing the RoHS directive. This topic is also on the agenda in the context of the discussion on the European Ecodesign Directive. The Öko-Institut suggested focusing on improving energy efficiency, while taking greater account of hazardous substances. Lead-free and fluorine-free panels could be included as design options. The Norwegian Solar Energy Cluster also supports the inclusion of lead and cadmium content in the discussion.
Copper alloys are 100% recyclable; lead can be easily filtered, but this is not possible in materials that substitute bismuth for lead.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/12/07/the-weekend-read-taking-the-lead/
PV Magazine of 7 December
* Exceeding 20% of the efficiency of CIGS thin film coatings
Manufacturers and research institutes across Europe want to improve the production of CIGS panels. Called SUCCESS, the project aims to achieve production efficiencies in excess of 20% for 30 x 30 cm panels. This new EU-funded project will run until May 2023.
It involves the Dutch equipment manufacturer SMIT Thermal Solutions, the Chinese manufacturer of CIGS Avancis panels, and the research institutes Helmholtz Zentrum (Berlin, Germany), Institut des Matériaux Jean Rouxel, (Nantes) and TNO / Solliance (Netherlands).
In 2018, Japan's Solar Frontier set the cell efficiency record for CIGS at 23.35% with a 1 x 1 cm cell.
PV Magazine of 5 December
Editor's note Either Europe is trying to finance the Chinese, or there is something wrong! The Chinese Avancis has managed to infiltrate a European project. He will extract strategic and technological information from it, then put it into practice in his production lines. Is this what the promoters of this project wanted? Who is the European decision-maker and how much thought has gone into it? How can we, after that, want to have a European industry if Europeans pay and the Chinese reap the benefits? What an image Europeans give! We really have to hope that the new European Commission will have a little more strategic vision and a little less stupidity.
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THE COMPANIES* Wacker is starting to worry about its opportunities in China
German silicon producer Wacker Chemie has directly criticised the Chinese government for favouring low-cost silicon production in western China; coal-based electricity is supplied at particularly low prices. In addition, there are loans and subsidies to build factories. China thus promotes the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers and thereby eliminates Wacker's sales on the Chinese market (NDLR Wacker is one of the world's top five silicon manufacturers). This means that Wacker will not be able to run its European plants at full capacity, thereby increasing its production costs: the company will depreciate its production tool by €750 million in the 2019 financial year.
PV Tech of 5 December
NDLR Wacker finally understood that his future as a silicon manufacturer was at stake. He reacted with words. There are no actions except that of a company seeking to improve its competitiveness. As it will not be able to fight against the advantages provided to Chinese producers, one wonders what will become of it. The only real answer would be to set up a downstream wafer industry, then a cell industry in order to find outlets. For this, a strategy for the constitution of a photovoltaic sector would be necessary. It is not with D. Trump that he could hope for this. Will he be more successful with the European Commission? For the moment, it has to take note of the files before it can act. Wacker's good fortune, compared to REC Silicon which is in the same situation, is that the silicon part only represents 20% of the group's activity. It can therefore hold out for a while until the storm passes or it finds a solution to lower its costs.
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MISCELLANEOUS* A mechanical sunflower that produces 4 times more energy than PV
American scientists have developed a solar tracker that acts like a mechanical sunflower by turning and bending to follow the movement of sunlight. These artificial sunflowers have diameters of less than 1 mm, with stems made from thermo-reactive polymers. The flowers are basic solar cells.
Scientists at UCLA have developed a solar tracking system called SunBOT. The stems are sensitive to light and heat. Once exposed to sunlight, the exposed part of the stem will contract under the effect of heat, bending the stem and directing the 'flower' towards the light source. The contracted part of the stem, kept in the shade of the 'flower', will gradually cool down and stop contracting, stabilising its angle. This system can operate at any temperature, from minus zero to over 70 degrees Celsius, and reacts automatically and instantaneously to any light source without human intervention. After extensive testing, these scientists found that the SunBOT captures 4 times more solar energy than traditional PV panels.
Many applications can be derived from this: solar collectors, solar sails, adaptive signal receivers, intelligent windows, robotics and guided surgery, in addition to detecting and monitoring energy emissions with telescopes, radars and hydrophones.
https://www.energytrend.com/news/20191203-15790.html
EnergyTrend of 3 December
* Hydropower by pumping: a presentation
An in-depth examination of pumped hydropower storage facilities combined with hybrid solar-wind energy systems was conducted by scientists from China (Shanghai Jiao Tong University), Sweden (Mälardalen University) and Poland (AGH University of Science and Technology). They sought to determine the optimal size of pumped storage hydropower systems based on renewable energies.
To be technologically and economically viable, pumped hydropower should complement hybrid storage. There are currently about 129 GW of pumped hydro storage capacity installed worldwide. The largest projects are located in Asia-Pacific (66.4 GW), Europe (51.7 GW) and North America (22.9 GW).
Pumped hydropower offers a number of advantages: it can track changes between supply and demand, and can adapt to sudden load changes. It can also maintain voltage stability and frequency modulation. In addition, it can integrate large volumes of wind and solar energy into the grid, ensuring stability and meeting the demands of end users.
The technological costs of solar pumped hybrid hydro projects currently range from $0.098/kWh to $1.36/kWh. "Appropriate selection of photovoltaic tracking technology is a major factor in influencing the cost variation of proposed systems, while the costs of photovoltaic panels are a major factor in the cost variation of the proposed systems.The researchers wrote, noting that the payback period for these projects is between 10 and 15 years, depending on size.
Projects combining pumped hydro with wind and solar would range from $0.099/kWh to $0.286/kWh, depending on policies, subsidies and taxes, with payback periods ranging from five to eight years, depending on the size and use of the pumped hydro.
"Pumped hydropower as a bulk energy storage appears to be a promising option to meet the high costs of power generation and to meet the growing energy demand in remote areas," the researchers concluded.
For its part, in its own study, the San Diego County Water Authority states that pumped hydropower is very competitive as a large-scale energy storage solution. The higher investment costs of this technology compared to battery storage are offset by its longer life, which gives it a lower average cost.
In its study, the Australian National University identified potential sites for out-of-river pumped storage hydropower projects worldwide: 530,000 locations could be suitable sites for 22 million GWh of hydro-pumped storage capacity in the future.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/12/05/coupling-pumped-hydro-with-renewables-and-other-storage-technologies/
PV Magazine of 5 December
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