l'Actualité du Solaire

After the bank holiday at the beginning of October, the installation of solar power plants in China did not go according to plan due to land and financial problems and the onset of winter. Some construction sites (for 6 GW) will be postponed until the first half of 2020.

PV InfoLink has therefore revised down its estimates of installed capacity for the fourth quarter to 11.3 GW in China. (Editor's note: this would make 27 GW for the whole of 2019). and 30 GW worldwide, bringing the global demand forecast for this year to less than 120 GW.

This slowdown in Chinese installations has an effect on the production chain. Low deliveries are encouraging panel manufacturers to lower their prices and secure their orders in order to maintain a satisfactory rate of capacity utilisation. As a result, prices for mono-PERC panels have consistently reached new lows in China since July when they were at 1.75 - 1.82 RMB / W (0.22 - 0.28 $ / W). Quotations from Chinese manufacturers of mono PERC panels remained stable at $0.25 - $0.26 / W in the third quarter. Consumer panels in the 390 - 400 W range were recently lowered to $0.23 - $0.24 / W for next year. With the market expected to remain flat in the fourth quarter, offshore prices are expected to decline further. Manufacturers have increased the wattage of their panels for the same price. Panels with larger wafers have become the best way to improve competitiveness. As expected, 158.75 mm (G1) square monoblock wafers will be generalised next year. Some manufacturers are accelerating their research and development efforts on 166 mm (M6) mono-Si wafers to further increase output power.

Lower prices for mono-Si wafers and improvements in output power are widening the gap between mono-Si and multi-Si products. For example, with the 72-cell arrangement, the power of mono-Si modules will reach 390 to 400 W, while that of multi-Si panels remains in the 340 to 345 W range, even with larger to half-cut wafers. In other words, the price difference can remain within the limits of $0.03/W, despite a difference of 50 W between the two products.

Demand for multi-Si products will not recover next year due to the widening power differential in watts. The world market share of multi-Si products is expected to drop to less than 20%.

Cast monosilicon products, which reach the commercial stage this year, could face competitiveness problems after the fall in mono-Si wafer prices next year.

Demand outlook

Demand in the first half of 2020 could be higher than expected due to delayed Chinese projects. As global demand is likely to increase slightly, global demand is expected to reach 131.5 GW in 2020, an increase of 13 GW compared to 2019 (+11%).

The ramp-up of manufacturing capacity along the supply chain exceeds market growth. The capacity increase for cells and mono-Si wafers will again exceed 30 GW in 2020, leaving the middle sector with the most excess capacity in the supply chain. Older production facilities will be withdrawn. The market will undergo a technological transition and continue its monopolistic concentration next year.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/11/21/module-prices-continue-to-slide/

PV Magazine of 21 November

Editor's note The article was written before the Chinese regulatory changes (see elsewhere). The early end of government subsidies should slow down installations in 2020: installers will cancel their constructions if they are not sure they will be profitable without the subsidy. Thus, while there will be installations postponed from 2019 to 2020, new projects will certainly be much less numerous. As a first approach, Chinese installations in 2020 should be close to those of 2019, i.e. 27 to 30 GW and not 40 GW as previously envisaged. This difference of 10 GW will result in too much supply on the market and a continuation of the downward trend in prices.